Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is a critical tool for managing fire risk in the built environment. By classifying fire hazards into individual components, QRA assists in identifying risks, assessing their likelihood and consequences, and recommends strategies to mitigate them. This approach is especially important in high-risk environments, such as the installation of Electric Vehicle (EV) chargers in residential buildings, industrial-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), waste management facilities, and distilleries. These settings present unique challenges, from flammable materials to lithium-ion batteries, demanding tailored assessments to ensure safety.

To understand what QRA is, it can be helpful to compare it to forecasting extreme weather events, such as a flood. In areas prone to flooding, flood-risk assessments are undertaken to preserve infrastructure and human life. In these assessments, etiologists analyse data such as rainfall patterns, soil absorption rates, and river flow levels to predict the likelihood and severity of potential flooding. For instance, a region may be assessed for its vulnerability based on low-lying geography and the frequency of heavy storms. Using this data, experts develop strategies such as flood barriers, improving drainage systems, and creating evacuation plans.

Similarly, Fire Engineers use QRA to identify and manage fire risks. An example is in a distillery. This is where flammable vapours pose a serious hazard, the probability of ignition and the potential consequences of rapid fire spread. Much like flood forecasts guide communities to protect against rising waters, fire risk assessments allow building stakeholders to proactively implement fire safety measures.

QRA follows a structured methodology to provide clear and actionable insights. Fire Engineers often use Risk Management Standards such as ISO 31000:2018. The process typically involves a semi-quantitative or quantitative methodology, such as a risk matrix approach, to analyse hazards. This involves assessing the severity of potential consequences alongside the likelihood of these events occurring. For example, the risk matrix may evaluate the probability of a fire caused by a short circuit in an EV charger or the consequences of an explosion in a BESS. The resulting risk levels guide decisions on appropriate mitigation measures, such as implementing temperature controls or upgrading fire suppression systems.

A vital aspect of QRA is collaboration among project stakeholders. Fire risk assessments are not performed in isolation but rather, they bring together a diverse group of experts, including architects, engineers, end users, and regulatory authorities. This collaborative process is often facilitated through risk workshops, where stakeholders contribute their perspectives to identify hazards and propose solutions. By encouraging consensus on severity ratings and risk levels, this approach ensures that the assessment reflects a shared understanding of potential impacts and mitigation measures.

The power of QRA lies in its ability to not only predict risks but also offer proactive solutions. Case studies illustrate its effectiveness in various settings. One case study in a waste management facility, QRA identified spontaneous combustion as a significant hazard. Based on the findings, measures such as regular monitoring, better ventilation, and improved material handling were implemented to reduce fire risks.

Quantitative Risk Analysis turns fire risk assessments into a data-driven, systematic process that aligns safety measures with real-world performance. By providing a clear understanding of risks and their potential impacts, QRA empowers decision-makers to prioritise safety investments effectively. Whether it’s protecting a residential building, an industrial facility, or a waste management site, QRA ensures that fire safety measures are tailored to the unique challenges of each environment. Through collaboration, structured methodologies, and actionable insights, QRA helps create safer spaces for everyone.