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The Science of Fire Safety: How numbers Save Lives

Keywords: fire safety engineering, quantitative fire safety assessments, Performance Solutions, fire risk analysis, CFD smoke modelling, dynamic egress calculations, materials testing.

The remains of Grenfell Tower served as a sombre reminder of a significant failure in fire safety measures. The 2017 blaze in North Kensington, London, which claimed 72 lives, was not just a tragedy; it was a brutal awakening. [BBC News, 2019] In the aftermath of Grenfell Tower, the field of fire safety engineering has been undergoing a significant transformation. The movement towards more evidence-based, quantitative methods is driven by the need for more precise, reliable, and actionable data to mitigate such tragedies in the future. This article explores why this shift is crucial and how data-driven fire engineering may mitigate or prevent future incidents like Grenfell Tower.

Fire safety in buildings traditionally relied on prescriptive codes and standards specifying safe materials and construction methods. This is done through building design whereby the design adheres strictly to the National Construction Code (NCC) or qualitative design provisions to mitigate risks.

The use of Quantitative Assessment in fire engineered Performance Solutions can offer several advantages over the traditional prescriptive codes (i.e. the NCC BCA 2022) and its qualitative methods. Quantitative Assessment covers use of many tools including but not limited to (i) Simple quantitative methods/ tools to evaluate fire safety at 1–D dimensional level; (ii) 2-D dimensional or 3-D dimensional analysis using advance tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) or Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to assess smoke movement, heat transfer, fire spread or material behaviour in 2D or 3D; (iii) Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to consider probabilities, consequences, overall risk level of a fire incident.

Since the introduction of a performance-based National Construction Coded (NCC) Building Code of Australia (BCA) in 1996, the ABCB has been introducing increased quantification of NCC BCA Performance Requirements. The full quantification of the NCC BCA Verification Method was introduced in BCA 2019. The implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was introduced for comment in 2019. However, its implementation delayed for due to multiple reasons [Morrison, 2021].

Here are some key reasons why performance-based design with quantitative analysis is being increasingly adopted by Lote.

Tailored Building Design Solutions

  • Prescriptive codes offer a standardised approach by outlining detailed requirements that must be adhered to. While this ensures a basic level of fire safety, it does not consider the unique characteristics of each building. Performance-based design allows fire safety solutions to be customized to the specific risks and needs of a building. Quantitative assessment allows for flexibility in using new technologies and design approaches, promoting efficient and effective fire safety solutions, as long as they meet safety criteria. [Risk Logic, 2000] An example is the use of Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) or bare structural steel in buildings or the introduction of a green wall in an atrium.

Risk Mitigation

  • Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) analyses the potential fire scenarios, their likelihood, and consequences. This approach identifies and mitigates risks overlooked by prescriptive codes and qualitative design, ensuring thorough evaluation of fire prevention, detection, suppression, and evacuation. [Ramachandran, G., & Charters, D., 2011] An example is addressing emerging fire hazards such as Lithium-Ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles in Carparks using a risk-based approach.

Cost Effectiveness

  • By addressing the specific risks and customizing solutions accordingly, quantitative methods can often be more practicable, targeted and cost-effective. It also helps to allocate resources effectively to make sure that investments in fire safety are applied where they are required. This approach can result in more functional, sustainable and cost-effective solutions, while maintaining safety standards. [Ramachandran, G., & Charters, D., 2011] An example of this is the determination of fire water demand for emerging fire hazards such as Lithium-Ion batteries in Datacentres or smoke management in a mega warehouse.

In summary, quantitative assessments in fire engineering performance solutions provides a more flexible and tailored method for addressing fire safety, as opposed to prescriptive codes. Utilising quantitative data and scientific analysis through quantitative methods can improve safety outcomes, promote innovation, and optimize resource allocation, contributing to the development of safer and more secure buildings.

It is noted that quantitative methods used specifically in the construction of Grenfell Tower could have provided the following benefits:

Material Selection

  • Through the evaluation of the cladding material by investigating the performance characteristics like flammability, heat release rates, flame spread, a better choice of cladding could have been made.

Stay Put Policy

  • It is noted that the evacuation plan for the building was a stay-put policy which instructed residents to remain in their homes in the event of a fire due to the compartmentation, provided by the building to protect them. [BBC, 2019] Prior quantitative analysis and analysis to evaluate the vulnerability of the cladding and the potential for fire spread to compromise the compartmentation could have assisted with development of evacuation plan and a more informed wholistic fire strategy.

The Grenfell Tower fire leaves its mark as a reminder of the importance of this evolution in fire safety engineering. With the shift to evidence and data-driven quantitative analysis, we can strive to keep the world safe and secure through creating safer buildings and mitigating similar devastating events.

References

  1. BBC News. (2019). Grenfell Tower fire: What happened. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40301289.
  2. Morrison, D. (2023). Draft Changes to the Building Code of Australia: Action Needed. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/draft-changes-building-code-australia-action-needed-morrison.
  3. Ramachandran, G., & Charters, D. (2011). Quantitative Risk Assessment in Fire Safety (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203937693.
  4. Risk Logic. (2000). Performance Based Design vs. Prescriptive Design. https://risklogic.com/performance-based-design-vs-prescriptive-design/.